Imagine the holiday season ramping up to fever pitch, with theaters poised for an epic clash of cinematic titans. But here's where it gets controversial: Could streaming giants like Netflix steal the spotlight from traditional movie outings? Dive in to discover the buzz around this year's Christmas box office battle!
December 23, 2025
Posted by Shawn Robbins (https://boxofficetheory.com/author/boxofficetheory/)
A quick heads-up: With the festive calendar packed and no fresh releases hitting screens until January 9 after this week, we're likely to skip a weekend prediction for New Year's. Of course, plans can always shift.
This piece is also featured in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter (https://boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/weekend-forecast-avatar-fire-and-ash-marty-supreme-anaconda-song-sung-blue-christmas).
The holiday frenzy is peaking, and that energy will spill over into cinemas this weekend as the next trio of major studio films from a lineup of seven rolls out nationwide during the bustling Christmas and New Year's period.
Marty Supreme
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $13.5 — 19.5 million (Wed previews through Sun)
Song Sung Blue
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $7.5 — 13 million (Wed previews through Sun)
Traditional Industry Tracking: $10 — 14 million (Wed previews through Sun)
Anaconda
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $8 — 14 million (Wed previews through Sun)
Traditional Industry Tracking: $20 million (Wed previews through Sun)
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Predicting box office numbers during this time of year can be tricky and unpredictable. Even though Avatar: Fire and Ash debuted at the lower end of what experts anticipated last weekend, the franchise's past successes lend some optimism for a prolonged run and solid second-week hold, especially with ongoing demand for premium theater experiences. (For beginners, a 'leggy run' simply means a movie that keeps earning well over multiple weeks, building a strong total gross.)
- Marty Supreme is quietly gaining traction as a hidden gem, boosted by enthusiastic reviews, potential Oscar buzz, and Timothée Chalamet's magnetic appeal that draws in younger audiences like Gen Z. It achieved the strongest platform release of 2025, raking in $875K from only six locations last week. Award season contention often means critics and industry insiders are talking, which can translate to word-of-mouth hype—think of it as extra marketing from the film's reputation.
- Anaconda and Song Sung Blue look set for a tight battle among this week's genuine newcomers in our projections.
But here's where it gets controversial: While competing forecasts predict bigger openings for Anaconda, we're wary of mixed signals from online chatter, critic feedback (currently sitting at 32 percent 'fresh' on Rotten Tomatoes from over 30 reviews), ticket pre-sales, and overall market crowding. Fair point: Its PG-13 rating and the comedic chops of stars like Jack Black and Paul Rudd might attract last-minute walk-ins as the primary holiday comedy option, but this optimism might stem from outdated habits before the rise of streaming services, which have changed how people choose entertainment. Is this a case of clinging to old-school thinking, or will theaters prevail?
Meanwhile, Song Sung Blue is exceeding early ticket sales hopes as a heartwarming musical aimed at grown-ups. While it might not replicate the massive success of something like The Greatest Showman, Hugh Jackman's charismatic performance and Kate Hudson's charm are undeniably driving interest. For those new to box office talk, feel-good musicals like this often thrive by offering escapist joy during stressful holiday times, much like holiday classics that families watch together for emotional uplift.
- From a broader perspective, don't forget that the next three episodes of Netflix's Stranger Things drop on the platform this Christmas Eve. As one of the biggest pop culture moments in recent memory, building to the series finale on New Year's Eve, it could subtly divert viewers from theaters and affect weekend attendance. And this is the part most people miss: How much will at-home streaming reshape holiday moviegoing? Is it a threat or just healthy competition?
Weekend Forecast
(The table below is best viewed on a desktop for clarity.)
This weekend's top 10 films are on track to bring in an estimated $158 million or more. That marks a 1 percent dip from the same period in 2024 ($159.4 million, highlighted by Sonic 3's $37 million and Mufasa's $36.8 million second weekends) and a 15 percent decline from 2019 ($186.8 million, led by Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker's $72.4 million sophomore frame).
| Film | Distributor | 3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast | 3-Day Change from Last Weekend | 4-Day (Thu-Sun) Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, December 28 | Expected Location Count (as of Tue) |
|------|-------------|-----------------------------------|---------------------------------|----------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------|
| Avatar: Fire and Ash | Disney (20th) | $61,000,000 | -32% | $80,400,000 | $206,400,000 | ~3,800 |
| Zootopia 2 | Disney | $18,200,000 | 23% | $23,200,000 | $319,700,000 | ~3,300 |
| David | Angel Studios | $15,400,000 | -30% | $20,900,000 | $51,800,000 | ~3,118 |
| The Housemaid | Lionsgate | $14,000,000 | -26% | $19,000,000 | $45,600,000 | ~3,015 |
| Marty Supreme | A24 | $11,000,000 | 1157% | $17,900,000 | $18,800,000 | ~2,800 |
| The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants | Paramount | $12,500,000 | -20% | $17,100,000 | $41,200,000 | ~3,557 |
| Song Sung Blue | Focus | $7,300,000 | NEW | $11,100,000 | $11,100,000 | ~2,400 |
| Anaconda | Sony | $6,900,000 | NEW | $11,000,000 | $11,000,000 | ~3,400 |
| Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 | Universal | $6,000,000 | -21% | $8,300,000 | $121,900,000 | ~2,500 |
| Wicked: For Good | Universal | $6,000,000 | 23% | $7,900,000 | $332,200,000 | ~2,600 |
All predictions listed are open to updates before the weekend begins and will be marked as such. Theater counts are approximations unless specified otherwise.
For press questions or inquiries about our predictions and offerings, feel free to reach out to us (https://www.boxofficetheory.com/contact).
What are your thoughts on this holiday box office showdown? Do you believe streaming rivals like Stranger Things will significantly cut into theater attendance, or is it all just festive hype? Which film are you rooting for to top the charts? Share your take in the comments—do you agree with our cautious outlook on Anaconda, or do you see it surging? Let's discuss!
