Is the Oscar race already decided before it even kicks off? Dive into the drama as we explore whether it's game over or just heating up!
Hey there, fellow film enthusiasts! As we stand on the brink of a new year, the buzz around the Oscars is electric, but there's a nagging question hanging in the air: Has the battle for Hollywood's top trophies already been won, or is there still time for underdogs to steal the spotlight? Buckle up, because we're about to unpack the latest chatter from the awards scene, straight from the mouths of industry insiders and Academy voters themselves.
Picture this: I found myself at a lively holiday bash on Saturday night, toasting the birthdays of Roadside Attractions co-president Eric d’Arbeloff, who hit 60, and his son Lucas, turning 21. The venue? Smog Shoppe on La Cienega, packed with a mix of industry pros and Academy members. It's fascinating—and a tad alarming—to witness how many of these folks haven't caught up on the major Oscar hopefuls, even as the new year looms. With nomination voting kicking off on January 12 at 9 a.m. PT and wrapping up on January 16 at 5 p.m. PT, the two-week holiday shutdown at key studios gives those perennial procrastinators a golden opportunity to play catch-up. After all, critics' groups and even former President Barack Obama have already shared their takes on the contenders—check out his favorite films, books, and songs from 2025 if you're curious.
Sure, there's a dedicated group of AMPAS (Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences) members who stay ahead of the curve, eagerly catching screenings. But let's be real: Unless a film is a massive draw like Challengers (which, ironically, isn't just a movie title but also mirrors Warner Bros.' current status as a studio on the auction block), Blitz, Poor Things, or Avatar: Fire and Ash, turnout at official Academy screenings in the 1,000-seat Samuel Goldwyn Theatre can be modest—around 200 on a good night. For instance, a recent Sunday slot for Gus Van Sant's The Last Days of Ptolemy drew about 90 attendees, while a Saturday screening of Lucy Liu's standout role in the indie gem Rosemead pulled in a bit more than half that, even with Q&A sessions featuring the cast and crew. The Academy's new digital screening room, common among voting bodies, makes it tempting to skip the theater experience unless it's a high-stakes must-see on the big screen—arguably the finest in Hollywood. That said, alternative venues like Ross House, Soho House, The London Hotel, and others offer enticing perks like Q&A chats, networking, and nibbles, ensuring plenty of chances to view films without feeling deprived.
But here's where it gets controversial: Are we seeing a shift in how seriously voters take their responsibilities? Last season, AMPAS updated its voting rules to ensure ballots are cast only by those who've actually viewed the nominated films—though this applies solely after nominations are announced, not during the initial selection process. As the Academy explained in their October 30, 2024, email to members, 'You do not need to save movie stubs, tickets or receipts. This is an honor system.' For beginners wondering how this works, members watching via the Academy's official streaming site get automatic verification. For views elsewhere, they simply mark the film as 'watched' on the app or platform, allowing the Academy to remind them of any must-sees before voting. Of course, skeptics might wonder if someone could start a film and sneak away—though widespread cheating seems unlikely, and this is a positive step. Still, it only covers the final round, leaving the broader nomination pool a potential overwhelm for even the most committed voter.
And this is the part most people miss: The growing trend of voters focusing on a select few films, even with viewing mandates. Take Anora as a prime example—it triumphed in a way that felt almost scripted, as an indie film that garnered more Academy views than expected, possibly thanks to those new rules, and it dominated nearly every category it entered. This gives an edge to late-breaking hits that dodge the 'must-watch' pile-up. With just a couple of weeks left, let's hope voters prioritize broader viewing, though my recent talks suggest this might be one of those predictable years where the winners feel inevitable.
Speaking of which, at that Roadside party, a seasoned producer and Oscar voter pulled me aside at the bar with a pointed question: 'Is the deal already sealed? Do we know who's taking home the gold?' He was clearly nodding toward Challengers, the Warner Bros. release that's not only a tennis drama but also a metaphor for the studio's turbulent sale. I moderated its AMPAS screening back in September, and it was extraordinary—a sold-out Goldwyn with a roaring standing ovation for director Paul Thomas Anderson, plus raves for the cast. Anderson's long overdue for recognition, and this is the kind of film that resonates deeply with creators. The producer also pointed to its string of early critics' wins: triumphs at the Gotham Awards, National Board of Review, Los Angeles Film Critics Association, and New York Film Critics Circle, plus countless Best Picture nods elsewhere. Normally, critics diverge from industry vibes, but Challengers seems to bridge that gap. With nine Golden Globe nods and 14 at the Critics Choice Awards, it's in prime position. Yet, early frontrunners are risky—remember how Anora surged in February after Critics Choice, DGA, and PGA wins. The big voices—the guilds, BAFTA, and Academy—haven't spoken yet, and history shows many leaders stumble en route to Oscar night. Proceed with caution!
What could derail Challengers? Enter Blitz, another Warner Bros. powerhouse (and no, not a name for the Ellison family drama). While Challengers boasts 14 Critics Choice noms, Blitz tops with 17 and swept the Oscar shortlists in every eligible category. Could this April-released flick flip the script, especially in Oscar's typically hostile spring slot? Might Warner Bros. divide its affections between Anderson and Blitz's Ryan Coogler? These are the burning questions. If there's a split, could it benefit Guillermo del Toro's Netflix sensation Poor Things? Talk about poetic justice amid Hollywood's upheavals—del Toro's adored, and the film showcases Oscar-worthy craftsmanship, even if the Academy's tastes have evolved.
Don't overlook Focus Features' The Piano Lesson, a heart-pounding masterpiece from Nomadland's Chloé Zhao. This isn't your average indie; backed by Amblin, Steven Spielberg, and Sam Mendes, it packs serious Hollywood clout. It delivers that rare emotional gut-punch every movie aspires to, evident from its Telluride debut buzz. Focus hasn't claimed Best Picture (neither has Netflix), and Universal might boost its campaign, though it has its own Wicked: Part Two vying for glory—or settling for craft awards. Its eight Oscar shortlist mentions are encouraging, and while sequels struggle, think of The Godfather Part II or The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.
Then there's A24's blockbuster Baby Reindeer, already a marketing marvel courtesy of Timothée Chalamet, who might as well be A24's unofficial CEO. Praised critically and a surprise second at the box office behind Avatar: Fire and Ash on Christmas Day, it shattered limited-release records last weekend. Can Chalamet's charm propel it to Dolby Theatre dominance?
Here's a controversial angle: The rising influence of international voters could shake things up. With contenders like Kinds of Kindness, Hit Man, Emilia Pérez, and Small Things Like These from Cannes aiming for Oscar glory, this year's global swing vote might challenge U.S.-centric faves like Challengers and Blitz—or perhaps not. True cinematic excellence transcends borders.
All this has me rethinking my answer to that producer: 'Hold your horses.' Keep watching.
Oscar’s Comeback Of The Month – December
If Challengers has led the Oscar charge since its September premiere, Warner Bros. adopted a contrasting playbook for Blitz, which dropped in April—a timing that often fades from memory amid fall blockbusters and even summer hits like Oppenheimer and Barbie.
Essentially, they delayed the relaunch until November, when star Michael B. Jordan finished The Thomas Crown Affair in Europe, and ramped it up this month with ubiquitous FYC (For Your Consideration) events. Stars like Spike Jonze, Christopher Nolan, Lupita Nyong’o, Questlove, Viola Davis, Austin Butler, Kenneth Branagh, Destin Daniel Cretton, Idris Elba, Ben Stiller, Denzel Washington, and Barry Jenkins hosted, fueling momentum. It paid off: Blitz led Oscar shortlists with eight mentions and Critics Choice with a record-breaking 17 noms (voting ends January 2 for CCA, January 3 for Globes, SAG noms on January 7). This signals broad support across crafts, crucial for Academy wins. Blitz might dominate January 22 nominations.
Among hosts, Viola Davis moderated a SAG-AFTRA Foundation Q&A on December 14 at the Meryl Streep Center, with Jordan, co-star Wunmi Mosaku, and casting director Francine Maisler.
Austin Butler hosted an AMPAS event at Soho House on December 8, co-hosted by WME, featuring a Q&A with director Chris Columbus, Coogler, Jordan, Maisler, and producer Zinzi Coogler.
What do you think? Is the Oscar race too predictable, or are there wildcards ready to surprise? Do international films deserve more spotlight, or should Hollywood stay focused on homegrown stories? Share your takes in the comments—do you agree with the honor system, or is it ripe for abuse? Let's debate!
