Nigeria's Oil Production: A Missed Target, Again!
For the fifth month in a row, Nigeria has fallen short of its OPEC oil quota, a concerning trend for Africa's leading oil producer. In December, Nigeria's crude oil production dipped to 1.422 million barrels per day (bpd), a slight decline from the 1.436 million bpd recorded in November. This is according to the country's official report to OPEC, as published in the latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR).
Here's the catch: Nigeria's own reports acknowledge that they've missed their 1.5 million bpd target under the OPEC+ agreements for five consecutive months. But OPEC's secondary sources tell a slightly different story, estimating that Nigeria's production actually increased from 1.491 million bpd in November to 1.5 million bpd in December.
And this is where it gets intriguing: Nigeria's state-owned oil company, NNPC, reported a combined crude oil and condensate production of 1.6 million bpd for November 2025, a 1.3% rise from October. But OPEC doesn't include condensate in its calculations, and the quotas strictly refer to crude oil.
NNPC has ambitious plans to boost production, aiming for 2 million bpd by 2027 and a whopping 3 million barrels daily by 2030. These goals are supported by President Bola Tinubu's reforms, which have already led to increased drilling and production. Daily output of crude and condensate has soared to 1.7-1.83 million barrels, and active rigs more than doubled from January to July.
But will these efforts be enough to consistently meet OPEC quotas? And what does this mean for Nigeria's oil industry and its global standing? The debate is open, and we'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments!
