The rising cost of food in Russia is a stark reminder of the impact of the ongoing war in Ukraine. This issue hits close to home for many Russians, as their daily lives and budgets are being affected.
The Pinch of Inflation
Alexander, an advertising specialist from Moscow, has seen his food budget skyrocket by over 22% in a single month. This is just one example of how ordinary Russians are feeling the pinch. With the Russian economy teetering between stagnation and decline, the consequences of the Kremlin's war are becoming increasingly evident.
Almost every essential item has seen a price increase, from basic groceries to daily treats like coffee. Even Alexander's Americano has jumped by 26%, a significant rise for a simple pleasure.
But here's where it gets controversial: the Russian government attributes these rising costs to the war effort and the defense industry, which dominate the federal budget. This has led to rapid economic growth, but at what cost?
The Masking of Economic Realities
Until recently, high inflation rates went largely unnoticed, especially in major cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg. Big spending and a booming economy masked the true impact of the war, sanctions, and the loss of foreign investment. However, this rapid growth couldn't last forever.
In 2025, economic growth slowed significantly, and salaries couldn't keep up with the rising prices. The start of 2026 saw a sharp 2.3% jump in supermarket prices within a month, according to Rosstat. Everything from meat to medicine became more expensive.
Our BBC team has been tracking the cost of a basic food basket since 2019. In 2024, this basket cost 7,358 roubles; last month, it was 8,724 roubles - an increase of nearly 20%. This aligns with Rosstat's measure of accumulated food inflation over the same period.
One notable increase is the cost of fruit and vegetables, which has risen by almost 15% since 2024. Russia's reliance on imported produce makes store prices highly sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations and supply chain disruptions, both of which occurred post-war.
Additionally, the price of dairy products, typically locally produced, has soared by 41%. This is due to rising farm costs, expensive loans, and staff shortages in the dairy industry.
The Impact on Daily Lives
The most recent factor influencing price rises is the increase in VAT from 20% to 22%. This sales tax hike is directly linked to the war, as the finance ministry stated it was necessary for defense and security.
While some, like Alexander, may not change their eating habits, others are significantly affected. Nadezhda, a 68-year-old retiree, can no longer afford beef and has turned to cheaper fish varieties. Her entire pension now goes towards food, leaving other expenses on hold.
Kristina, a marketing specialist, has also had to dip into her savings to buy food. She and her husband, a personal trainer, can no longer afford to eat out, and even cooking at home has become more expensive.
The Economic Outlook
In 2025, Russia's Central Bank Governor predicted a "scenario of balanced rates of economic growth." However, economists suggest the economy is at risk of entering the red, especially with the oil market's impact on the federal budget.
The budget relies on high oil prices, but market rates have fallen this year with no expected rise. Additionally, US sanctions have cut off Russian oil sales to India, one of Moscow's main trading partners.
This could lead to a larger-than-expected budget deficit, making borrowing difficult due to high-interest rates. The Russian authorities may be forced to implement unpopular measures, such as further tax rises or cutting budget spending, primarily in the public sector. This would further impact household incomes and slow down the economy.
Economist Tatiana Mikhailova believes there is a high likelihood of a decline in GDP, stating, "There is a trend towards stagnation and a possible decline." While the economy may continue without growth for a time, the impact on ordinary Russians will be felt.
The war's economic consequences are a harsh reality for many, and the rising cost of food is just one aspect of this complex issue.
